2009 Tour de Lance: Begun and Done

The opening stage of the 2009 Tour de France is in the books and it looks like Lance Armstrong’s comeback is done as soon as it’s begun. It may sound like it’s a bit defeatist to call it done after one stage but I think it’s realistic.

Lance Armstrong built his Tour de France wins on the strategy of winning the time trials and then holding off his rivals in the mountain stages. Lance finished a very pedestrian 10th in the opening time trail and I’d be stunned if he were a good enough climber to gain all that back in the mountains, especially against a rider like Alberto Contador. Contador finished second in today’s time trial, twenty-two seconds ahead of Armstrong, proving his all-around strength as a rider.

Even more damning is the fact that Armstrong was beaten by two other teammates, American Levi Leipheimer and German Andreas Kloden. Armstrong is not the first, second or possibly even third best rider on his own team, never mind the rest of the field. I think that, once the tour reaches the mountains and it becomes clear that Armstrong’s chances are slim, he’ll fall in line and ride for Contador. I am not sure of this, as I think it will be difficult for him to give up his pride and a shot at the podium, but it would make sense.

As an aside, the Astana team looks incredibly strong and it will be shocking if they don’t win the team time-trail, a stage making a comeback of it’s own, having been left out of the last several tours. Putting four men into the top 10 of the opening time-trial is amazing. Leipheimer had a great ride in the Giro d’Italia and Kloden has finished on the podium in the past. It’ll be an interesting to see if Astana can hold together as a team given they have so many strong riders, several of which are capable of finishing on the podium.

I know there will be many who disagree with me and who will say it is early yet. As a huge tour geek and Lance fan, I am pulling for Lance but have to be realistic about his chances. I think he’ll pull out a stage win or two but this year’s race is designed to favor the younger, better climbers like Contador, Denis Menchov and Carlos Sastre. The race ends, for all intents and purposes, on an uphill climb to the summit of Mount Ventoux. If Lance is still contending by then, I’ll be surprised.

Given all that, it is possible to pull back remarkable amounts of time in a single climb. Even the best climbers have bad days and can crack under the heat and strain. Even if Lance is a minute or two back, it will be possible for him to pull off the upset on Ventoux. He’s never won a stage on Mount Ventoux, finishing second in two tours and one Paris-Roubais.

I guess there’s a first time for everything and the last mountain stages guarantee the drama remains high until the very end. Armstrong tends to improve as a rider in the second and third weeks of the tour so anything is possible. But, after today, it looks like he’s only human after all.

Post Script: If you’re an American like me that doesn’t have cable or who wants to follow the Tour when you can’t be in front of a television, you can watch live video of the race via SBS.com out of Australia. You’ll miss Bob Roll but you get to listen to Paul Sherwin and Phil Liggett call the race. And you’ll get to spoil the day’s stage for any of your friends who have to wait to go home to watch the Versus coverage.

Update (07/05/09): It looks like SBS has blocked the US from viewing their live video feed. I’m looking around another free and live video stream but haven’t had any luck. Bummer.