2009 Tour de France: Unexpected Drama

Okay, maybe I was wrong. Maybe Lance has a chance to win his 8th Tour de France after all. Forgive me for doubting. After watching him finish 10th in the individual time trial, I thought for sure he was done. I didn’t think he had the legs or the form to hang with some of the younger riders. I mean, come on. The worst finish Lance Armstrong has registered in an individual time trial in the Tour de France since he first won the thing is seventh. That was way back in 2003, the year he came closest to losing out to Jan Ullrich.

That same year, in the 12th stage, he had a miserable time trial. He was hot and dehydrated. He lost 51 seconds to Jan Ullrich. And he still finished the stage in second place. For him to finish 10th on a day in which he’s feeling relatively fit is unheard of, unthinkable.

So maybe you can forgive me for thinking that his chances of winning the Tour hover somewhere between slim and none.

What I didn’t take into account is just how wily his experience has made him. It gives him an edge that his legs may not be able to give him any more.

Just look at what happened today. With about 30 kilometers to go in a stage no one expected to change anything, the Columbia – High Road team rounded a corner, detected a cross-wind favorable to opening a gap and took off. Most of the race’s general classification contenders were caught flat-footed and were left behind. Alberto Contador, Levi Leipheimer, Cadel Evans, Denis Menchov, Carlos Sastre…all left behind.

But not Lance. Lance was right there to take advantage of the split, putting 39 seconds into his main rivals. The first thought I had when as I watched is that Lance was tipped by Columbia rider George Hincapie. Hincapie rode with Lance for all of his Tour wins and they remain good friends. Lance denies George told him anything but it was a very fortuitous circumstance for Armstrong, certainly.

Even more fortuitous was the fact that Armstrong had two teammates along for the ride. And that fact is where it gets interesting for me. Generally, in these kinds of circumstances, members from one particular team stay with or fall back to their leader, helping to chase down any break or escape and making sure the team leader doesn’t lose any time on rivals.

What they don’t do is spend time at the front end of a break pushing the pace trying to widen any time gaps. But both Yaroslav Popovych and Haimar Zubeldia did just that. At one point, the gap between the first peloton containing yellow-jersey Fabian Cancellara and Lance Armstrong and the second peloton was 41 seconds. That was the point when Popovych and Zubeldia were setting the pace instead of team Columbia. You think Alberto Contador noticed? With teammates like these…

What does that all mean? Putting it all together, it means, I think, that Lance Armstrong has at least two team mates on Astana that will help him against nominal team leader and rival Alberto Contador.

The question is whether there are more. I think that there will be more if Lance can jump two more places and put on the yellow jersey. Once he’s in the yellow jersey, the whole team falls in line behind him, at least for the short term. The pressure would be on Astana to defend the yellow jersey, no matter who is wearing it. If Lance puts it on, he’ll become the defacto leader of Astana until the jersey is taken away. That is huge. Without the team support, Lance has no chance. With the team to support him, he just might have a shot.

And that goes to show just how cunning Armstrong can be. He had to know all this when Columbia made their break. He has to know that tomorrow is the team time trial and his Astana team is expected to win. The Astana team is a behemoth of talent compared to the rest of the field. Their main rivals will be Saxobank, the current defenders of the yellow jersey, and Columbia-HTC. If Astana puts 41 seconds into Saxobank and 8 seconds into Columbia, Lance wears the yellow jersey as soon as tomorrow night.

From then on, the problem of divided Astana loyalties becomes lessened, at least until the mountains or until someone else wears yellow. If Lance is still wearing the yellow jersey when the Tour enters the Pyrenees on Friday…well, I don’t know what will happen. We may see Lance attacked by his own teammate, Contador. Or Contador might bide his time, waiting for the next individual time trial and the Alps.

At any rate, an already interesting race got more interesting today, and not less. The plots and subplots run deep and this is easily the most exciting tour since Lance retired. I can’t wait to see how it plays out.

Which brings me to a logistical note. Versus does indeed have the live race broadcast available online for free. I thought they only did pay per view. The apparent difference between the free and pay version is the quality of the video. I can live with a grainy video as long as I get to watch and listen to Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwin. Those guys rock.

Anyway, I’m sure I’ll be providing more informal tour coverage and analysis over the next three weeks. Come back and visit and feel free to drop a comment. Hope you guys are enjoying the race as much as I am.

Go Lance!